Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
